Press ReleaseArs Electronica , the oldest, largest, and most prominent art and technology festival in the world, today launched a web site inviting participants to make predictions about the next 25 years, year by year, and to vote on predictions already posted.
This really is quite interesting.
After reading James Surowiecki's excellent Wisdom of Crowds, I do believe that a system like this probably could predict the future quite accurately.
It'd just need the critical mass behind - enough people to vote and post their vision.
The problem with this particular site might be that you get too much data for people to comment.
Anyway, a "free market" of ideas such as this really could take off, but you'd probably need economic incentive to really get it flying.
This brings back echoes of the buried Policy Analysis Market, which, if we don't think about the ethical consequences, was actually a pretty good idea.
Reminds me of the Long Bets idea, just a bit more democratized, it would seem....
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[Via Joi Ito] -- The world's largest art and technology festival, the Ars Electronica Festival, is currently underway in Linz, Austria. Celebrating its 25th anniversary, the festival organizers are soliciting people to make their best guess, err, predi... Read More
International man of mystery Joi Ito points out the Ars Electronica project Timeline+25, "a web site inviting participants to make predictions about the next 25 years, year by year, and to vote on predictions already posted." Not only is this... Read More